Florida vs Hawaii in Winter: Weather, Sea and Hotel Prices Compared

For a winter beach trip, Hawaii is the safer bet. At four of the five Hawaiian airports we checked, 81% to 94% of winter days were warm and dry enough for the beach, while no Florida station passed 71%. The sea is the bigger gap: around 25°C in Hawaii in January, against 17°C to 20°C on Florida’s Gulf coast. Florida wins on distance, and the hotel data holds a surprise: in January and February 2026, an average room in Waikīkī cost less than one in Miami.

Both places sell themselves as the American answer to winter, and both are partly right. To compare them on something firmer than brochure photos, we took ten winters of daily records, from December 2015 to February 2025, from the official airport weather stations in six Florida cities and five Hawaiian ones. We added ten winters of sea temperature readings from NOAA tide gauges and the hotel rates that STR, the industry’s benchmark survey, recorded in each market from December 2025 to February 2026.

The result answers the questions people ask before they book. Will it be warm enough to swim? How often will it rain? What will a room cost, and how far is the flight?

The short answer

Here is how the two compare on the things that decide a winter trip. The detail behind each line follows below.

Weather: Hawaii is warmer, and steadier

Averages make the two look closer than they feel. Miami’s normal January high is 24.6°C (76°F) and Honolulu’s is 26.9°C (80°F), a gap of barely two degrees. The real difference is the spread. Florida’s winter comes in waves, with cold fronts sweeping down the peninsula, while the trade winds keep Hawaii inside a narrow band all season.

The table puts the 1991 to 2020 climate normals for January next to what happened on each day of the last ten winters.

Florida’s cold fronts are the real risk

In Orlando, 23% of winter days stayed below 21°C (70°F) and 30% of nights fell under 10°C (50°F). Tampa looks much the same. That matters on a theme-park day that starts at breakfast and ends after the fireworks. On 18 January 2018 Orlando’s airport recorded −2.7°C (27°F).

Every step south buys warmth. Miami had a cool day only 6% of the time, and its lowest reading in ten winters was 4.4°C (40°F), on 22 January 2020. Key West never dropped below 10°C. In Miami and Key West about four in five winter days reached 24°C; in Orlando and Tampa, little more than half did. For the rest of the state, our Florida weather guide has the full monthly comparison.

In Hawaii, rain depends on the side of the island

Hawaii’s figures hide a split that matters more than which island you pick. Hilo, on the windward side of Hawaiʻi Island, averages 766 mm of rain from December to February, and 44% of winter days there brought at least 2.5 mm. Kona airport, on the same island but in the lee of the mountains, averages 91 mm, with rain on just 6% of days. Līhuʻe, on Kauaʻi’s east coast, falls in between.

Most of the big resort areas, including Waikīkī, Kāʻanapali and Wailea on Maui, and the Kohala Coast, sit on the drier leeward sides. If rain is your worry, the coast you sleep on matters more than the month. Our guide to the best time to visit Hawaii covers the microclimates island by island.

The sea is where the gap is widest

Air temperature decides whether you can sit on the beach. Water temperature decides whether you will get in, and here the two places split cleanly. These are averages of daily readings from NOAA tide gauges over the same ten winters.

Around Hawaii the water barely moves. Every gauge averaged between 24.7°C and 26.6°C in each winter month, and not one January day fell below 21°C. Florida’s Atlantic side stays swimmable for most people, at 23°C to 24°C in January near Miami and Palm Beach. The Gulf coast is a different story. At Clearwater Beach the January average was 17.5°C, and 92% of January days were under 21°C. Naples, much further south, still averaged 19.8°C.

That makes the white-sand Gulf beaches, from Clearwater to Siesta Key, better for winter walks than for swimming. They warm quickly in spring: Clearwater averaged 22.1°C in March and Naples 23.0°C. Our Florida beaches guide compares the two coasts.

Hawaii’s winter catch: the waves

The trade-off in Hawaii is surf. Winter swells from the North Pacific hit north-facing shores hardest, which is why the big-wave contests at Waimea Bay and Pipeline on Oʻahu’s North Shore are held in winter. A beach that looks like a lagoon in July can be deadly in January. In winter, swim on south- and west-facing shores, use lifeguarded beaches and check the daily conditions on Hawaii Beach Safety before you go in. Our Hawaii safety guide and Hawaii beaches guide go into more detail.

Hotel prices: closer than you would think

Hawaii has the reputation, and the yearly figures back it up. STR data published by Hawaii’s tourism research office show the islands had the highest average room rate of any US market in 2025, at $366.66, against $224.24 in Miami. But a winter trip happens in winter, and the winter numbers tell another story.

The two run in opposite directions. Florida’s rates climb through the season and peak in February. Hawaii’s dearest month is December, around the holidays, and rates drop back in January. By February 2026 the average room in Waikīkī cost $264, less than in Miami at $322. Fort Lauderdale was at $253, and Key West, at $524, cost almost twice as much as Waikīkī.

Average daily rate (ADR) is what hotels earned per occupied room, before tax, across all classes of hotel in each market.

Occupancy points the same way. In February, 91% of Key West’s hotel rooms were filled and 85% of Miami’s, against about 79% across the Hawaiian islands. If you book late, Hawaii in February has more slack.

Maui is the expensive end of Hawaii, at $560 a night in February and $689 in December. The state’s February 2026 report still notes the effect of the August 2023 wildfires on Maui’s hotels. Oʻahu is the cheapest way into Hawaii in winter, and the Keys are the dearest way into Florida.

Remember that these rates leave out tax. In Hawaii, the state’s transient accommodations tax rose from 10.25% to 11% on 1 January 2026, counties add their own, and general excise tax comes on top. Resort fees and parking, common in both places, are extra too. Our guides to Hawaii travel costs and Florida travel costs cover the rest of the budget.

Getting there: distance decides it for most people

For anyone east of the Rockies, Florida’s biggest advantage is that it is close. Honolulu is 4.6 times as far from New York as Miami is, and from Chicago it is further away than London. These are straight-line distances, so real routes are a little longer.

The picture flips in the west. From Los Angeles, Honolulu is only about 10% further than Miami, and from Seattle it is the nearer of the two. Time zones add to the effect. Hawaii does not use daylight saving time, so in winter it is 5 hours behind New York and 2 hours behind Los Angeles. A long weekend in Hawaii is hard work from the East Coast. In Florida it is easy.

For a week or more, the distance counts for less, and Hawaii’s warmer, steadier weather starts to repay the extra hours in the air. Our Hawaii airports guide explains which island to fly into, and the Florida Keys guide covers the drive down from Miami.

Winter wildlife: whales or manatees

Each place has a winter visitor that justifies the trip on its own for some people. In Hawaii it is the humpback whale. According to the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary, humpbacks are generally seen in Hawaiian waters from November to April, with the peak from January to March. Whale-watching boats leave from all the main islands, and on a calm day you can often see their blows from shore.

Florida’s answer is the manatee. When the sea cools, manatees gather in springs and other warm-water refuges, and they are easy to watch from boardwalks. At Blue Spring State Park, north of Orlando, hundreds of them shelter in the spring run from mid-November to March. Crystal River and Three Sisters Springs, on the Gulf coast, are the other well-known spot. Viewing rules are strict at both, so check the park’s own page before you go.

Winter is also the dry season in the Everglades and the best time for wildlife there. Our Everglades guide explains how to fit it into a South Florida trip.

Which one should you choose?

Most of the decision comes down to where you live, when you can travel and how much the sea matters to you.

If warm water and settled weather are the point of the trip, Hawaii is worth the flight, and January or February is the time to go. If you want sun within a few hours of home, or you are travelling in December, South Florida is the practical choice. Start with our Florida guide or our Hawaii guide, and see our Hawaii hotels and where to stay in Florida pages when you are ready to book.

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