Why Japan Surged and the US Slipped: Tourism's Winners and Losers of 2025

Japan was the big winner of 2025, adding about 5.8 million international visitors. The United States was the big loser, down 4 million, and almost all of that loss came from a single neighbour: Canada. Meanwhile Spain took a large bite out of France's lead, and Thailand went backwards.

This post is about why the numbers moved. If you only want the league table, it lives on our most visited countries page, with every year back to 2007. Here we take those figures, set them beside national data and ask what changed, what has happened since and whether any of it should affect your plans. For scale, UN Tourism estimates 1.52 billion international arrivals in 2025, up 4% on 2024. Anything growing faster than that gained ground.

Gains and losses at a glance

We sorted this by how many visitors each country gained or lost, which gives a very different order from the usual ranking. All the changes are our own arithmetic, and a dash means we do not hold a comparable 2019 figure.

Swipe or scroll horizontally to see the full table.

Three things jump out. Turkey has grown the most since 2019 among the countries we can compare, at 21%, even though 2025 was a slow year for it. Italy had a strong year and is still 5% short of its 2019 figure. And the United States sits 14% below where it stood before the pandemic, and only Thailand is further behind.

Japan: the biggest gain, and it has already stalled

Japan's national tourism organisation counted 42.7 million visitors in 2025, up 15.8% and more than 10 million above 2019. Mainland China alone sent 9.1 million people, up 30%.

Then the source of that growth turned off. After a diplomatic row in November 2025, Chinese arrivals fell sharply, and in the first nine months of 2026 they were down 55.5% at 3.3 million. The surprise is how little that hurt the total, which slipped just 2.9% to 30.7 million. South Korea rose 21.6% and Taiwan 19.1%, and between them they filled most of the gap.

Our reading is that Japan has lost its largest source of growth without losing its appeal. A country that can shed over half of a major market and stay within 3% of a record year does not have a demand problem.

The US drop is mostly one country

The headline says the United States lost 4 million visitors. The federal figures tell a narrower story. Canadian arrivals fell by about 4.2 million, or roughly 20%. Mexican arrivals rose 6.4%, about 1.1 million more. Everyone else combined fell 2.5%, about 0.9 million.

So Canada accounts for slightly more than the entire net loss. Without it, American inbound travel would have been roughly flat, which is still a poor result in a year when the world grew 4%. Canada explains the size of the fall, but not why visitors from almost everywhere else slipped as well.

The 2026 World Cup was supposed to fix this. The government's spring forecast expected 70.5 million arrivals this year. So far the evidence is weak: overseas arrivals fell in June, the tournament's opening month, and federal survey data put international air visitors down 6.1% in the second quarter. We could not find full figures past June, so the year is not settled.

Can Spain catch France?

Yes, and sooner than most people expect. France's lead over Spain was 8.4 million in 2024 and about 5.2 million in 2025. Spain then reported 58.1 million arrivals in the first seven months of 2026, up 4.6%. Hold that rate for the full year and Spain finishes near 101 million.

That would leave it about a million behind France, if French numbers stay flat. We expect Spain to take first place by 2027, possibly earlier. Two warnings go with that call. France's 2025 number is an estimate, and we found no 2026 French arrivals figure to compare. Spain's summer growth rate may also not hold through the winter.

Whichever country leads, the figure measures people and not enjoyment. If you want Spain without the busiest stretches, our Spain travel guide and our post on winter sun in the Canary Islands are better starting points than a league table.

Why Thailand fell

Thailand dropped from 35.5 million to about 33 million, and it remains 17% below 2019. The damage was in short-haul markets. Chinese arrivals fell hard, and press reports point to safety fears, an earthquake, tension on the Cambodian border and stronger competition from neighbouring countries. Those explanations are reported, not measured, so we would not rank them.

Long-haul arrivals grew in the same year, which suggests the fall says more about regional travel than about the appeal of the islands. If you are deciding where to go there, our Phuket vs Krabi comparison is the useful next read.

Where the data runs out

One caution before drawing big conclusions. UN Tourism had no 2025 entry for France, the United Kingdom, Germany or China when we read its dashboard, so nobody can yet say who really finished eighth, ninth or tenth. The six countries below are bunched within about 5 million of each other, and half the figures are out of date.

Swipe or scroll horizontally to see the full table.

If the older figures hold, Austria and Thailand drop out of the 2025 top 10 once the gaps are filled. China could also jump well clear of this group: its 2023 figure is barely half of the 65.7 million it recorded in 2019.

What this means for your trip

• Do not plan around a quiet Japan. Total arrivals have barely moved, so popular places will still be busy. Our Japan guide covers the basics.
• Do not assume falling arrivals mean bargains in the US. A drop in Canadian visitors says little about hotel rates in New York. Check prices for your dates.
• Book Spain, Italy and Greece early for summer. All three are growing from an already high base.
• Check your government's travel advice for Thailand. Border conditions can change faster than annual statistics.

FAQ

Which country gained the most visitors in 2025?

Among the countries with published figures in the top 10, Japan gained the most, with about 5.8 million extra arrivals. Italy was next with about 3.6 million.

Why did visits to the United States fall in 2025?

Mostly because of Canada. Canadian arrivals fell by about 4.2 million, slightly more than the total net fall of about 4 million.

Is Japan losing visitors in 2026?

Slightly. Arrivals in the first nine months of 2026 were down 2.9% on the same period of 2025, because of a steep fall from mainland China. South Korea and Taiwan both grew strongly.

Why did tourism in Thailand fall in 2025?

The fall came mainly from short-haul markets, above all China. Press reports cite safety concerns, regional competition and border tension, while long-haul arrivals grew.

Sources and checks

Last checked 8 November 2026. Country figures for 2019 to 2025 come from the UN Tourism Data Dashboard, except France's 2025 figure, which is an Atout France estimate, and Thailand's 2024 figure, which comes from Thai government totals reported in the press. Percentage changes and the combined ranking are our own calculations.

• Countries count differently. Japan reports visitors at the border and Austria reports tourists in accommodation, so close rankings should not be over-read.
• Sources give Canada's fall as about 20% to 21%. The drop of about 4.2 million is consistent across reports.
• Japan's 2026 figures are JNTO preliminary estimates.
• We found no US arrivals total after June 2026 and no 2026 arrivals figure for France.
• The full rankings carry the method notes for each year.
• Our Spain projection simply extends the January to July growth rate. It is not an official forecast.